EXPRESS INDEX - HOUSING MARKET UPDATE - February 2024

There are many UK housing market indexes released every month and we are attempting to provide the ultimate, comprehensive overview to the very fragmented reports available.

UK HOUSING MARKET SNAPSHOT

Average House Price (Price Paid)

£284,691

Monthly Change 0.1%

Annual Change 1.4%

5 Year Change 23.9%

Source: HM Land Registry

Average House Price (Asking Price)

£362,839

Monthly Change 0.9%

Annual Change 0.1%

5 Year Change 20.4%

Source: Rightmove

Number of Sales Completed

48,642

Monthly Change 19.5%

Annual Change 41.1%

5 Year Change 47.4%

Source: HM Land Registry

Sales Agreed

Monthly Change 20%

Source: Rightmove

Total Available Properties

468,808

Available Properties Change

Monthly Change 1.2%

Average Time on Market

178 days

Source: Home

Average Time to Sell

78 days

Source: Rightmove

Price Reductions

2.4% properties price reduced last month

Source: Home

Mortgage Approvals

Annual Change 25.6%

Source: Bank of England

POSTCODE DISTRICT DATA

Region
Asking Price Data

REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES

NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET COMMENTARY

"Average new seller asking prices rise by 0.9% (+£3,091) this month to £362,839, in line with the seasonal rise we’d expect to see in February. Perhaps more noteworthy is that average prices are now up by 0.1% compared to this time last year, following annual falls in every month since August 2023, one of several signs of growing market momentum. The number of sales agreed in the first six weeks of the year is 16% higher than in the same period last year, indicating that early-bird buyers feel that 2024 offers the right market conditions to move, and they are already seizing the opportunity. However, the market remains price-sensitive, with many buyers very budgetconscious. Sellers who are over-optimistic and think that the more positive market sentiment will let them try asking for too high a price, risk being left on the shelf and missing out on the important Spring moving season. "

"The January 2024 RICS UK Residential Survey results show another slight improvement across all sales market activity indicators. Moreover, sentiment regarding the outlook for sales volumes over the coming twelve months has turned increasingly positive, supported by expectation that interest rates will ease back to a certain degree as the year progresses."

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET COMMENTARY

"With respect to house prices, the survey’s headline gauge of price growth returned a net balance of -18% during January. While this remains below zero and is therefore still symptomatic of some downward pressure being visible, the readings for this metric have now turned less negative in five successive reports. Consequently, this suggests any falls in house prices are decelerating noticeably at the headline level. In terms of the regional data, London stands out as exhibiting a more stable trend for prices this month. Likewise, respondents based in Scotland and the North West of England have cited a generally flat picture in recent months. Meanwhile, Northern Ireland continues to see prices drift higher according to a net balance of +59% of contributors."

“Average UK house prices rose by 1% in the three months to December, taking the rate of annual growth to 7.4%, down from 7.7% in September. This value of an average home is at £242,000, a rise of £17,000 during 2021. Wales is registering the highest rate of house price growth, for the tenth consecutive month. Prices are up 11.3% in the country, with average values in Powys, Carmarthenshire and Neath Port Talbot rising by 14.4%, 13.7% and 13.4% respectively as the desire for more space and the relative affordability of these markets has pushed up demand. Liverpool and Manchester lead the way in terms of price growth in the UK’s largest cities, at 10.7% and 8.7%, contributing to average growth of 9.2% in the North West. Oldham and Rochdale are also registering growth of more than 11%. At the other end of the scale, London’s home values are up by an average of 2.6%, although in a third of the city’s boroughs including Bromley, Bexley and Havering, price growth is over 4%."

AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE CHANGES SINCE 1995

HOUSE PRICE PREDICTIONS FOR 2021
Tim Bannister, Director of Property Data at Rightmove: 4% rise

“2021 has a lot of variables, and so is not an easy one to call, but with Rightmove’s unique leading indicators of buyer and seller behaviour we are confident that the housing market will continue to outperform general expectations next year as it did this."

"Our 2021 forecast of a 4% price rise is more conservative than the unsustainable 6.6% national average seen this year. There’s likely to be a lull in quarter two unless the stamp duty holiday is extended, but for many buyers its removal will not be make or break, though may lead them to reduce their offers to a degree to compensate for the higher tax, and indeed many sellers may be prepared to help to mitigate their buyer’s financial loss."

"First-time buyers will remain largely exempt, so in most cases will be no worse off. The maximum savings of £2,450 in Wales or £2,100 in Scotland are considerably less decisive than the £15,000 available in England for a house costing £500,000 or more, which does however only apply to a small part of the market.”

Russell Galley, Managing Director of Halifax: 2% to 5% fall

"Despite the deepest recession for centuries, house prices have risen over the past year at their fastest rate since 2016, with mortgage approvals also at their highest level for over a decade. This growth has been driven by a shift in demand from buyers as a result of increased home working and a desire for more space, whilst the stamp-duty holiday brought forward many transactions that might otherwise have been planned for next year."

"With the stamp duty holiday also due to expire in March - and lower levels of demand - housing market activity is likely to slow. Taking all of this into account, the post-summer surge in house prices is unlikely to be sustained. Prices are expected to fall by between 2% and 5% next year, although forecast uncertainty is much higher than usual given the current economic and political environment."

Richard Donnell, Research and Insight Director at Zoopla: 1% rise

“Central to our outlook is lower levels of turnover by long-run standards, which over time increases the scarcity of homes for sale."

"We expect the supply of properties for sale to moderate over 2021, which will restrict choice for consumers."

"This creates a scenario in which any improvement to the economic climate, growth in employment levels, or an uptick in consumer sentiment will in turn boost demand, increase transaction volumes in line 2019 levels, and could provide impetus for house price growth in 2022."

Lucian Cook, Head of Residential Research at Savills: 0% change

“We do expect the economic effects of the pandemic to weigh more heavily on the housing market next year."

Nick Barnes, Head of Research at Chestertons: 1.5% rise

"Assuming no further major systemic shocks, we anticipate that the brunt of Covid’s impact on employment will be felt by the mainstream market and we forecast that after an exceptional year of growth in 2020, prices growth across the UK will slow to 1.5%. Greater London prices have risen less but are likely to fall more, and we expect them to drop by 2% by the end of the year."

HOUSE PRICE PREDICTIONS
IMPORTANT LIABILITY STATEMENT

An ExprEstimate is simply an estimation of what your property could be worth in current market conditions. This is calculated using an automated computerised system. We use a number of publicly available data sources to help calculate our estimations, maps, tables and other content. This data may be inaccurate or incomplete at times and therefore must not be relied upon. Our valuation estimations, maps and tables are provided to you for personal use, general interest and to provide homeowners with a useful starting point when trying to assess their property’s current value and the UK property market in general. These estimates, maps, tables and any other content should not be relied upon for any type of commercial transaction. We strongly recommend that you seek a professional valuation from a qualified surveyor / qualified professional before any property sale, purchase, mortgage or related purposes. We shall not be liable for any losses you or anyone else suffers as a result of relying on the valuations, maps, tables and any other content. This includes not being liable for any loss of profit, loss of bargain, loss of capital through over-payment or under-sale or for any indirect, special or consequential loss. We cannot and do not guarantee that the Service will be constantly available or error-free. Also, our liability to you is limited to £100. WE DO NOT EXCLUDE OR LIMIT OUR LIABILITY FOR ANYTHING WE ARE NOT ALLOWED TO AND YOUR STATUTORY RIGHTS AS A CONSUMER ARE NOT AFFECTED BY ANY OF THESE TERMS AND CONDITIONS.