EXPRESS INDEX - HOUSING MARKET UPDATE - MARCH 2022

There are many UK housing market indexes released every month and we are attempting to provide the ultimate, comprehensive overview to the very fragmented reports available.

UK HOUSING MARKET SNAPSHOT

Average House Price (Price Paid)

£276,755

Monthly Change 0.5%

Annual Change +10.9%

5 Year Change +27.2%

Source: HM Land Registry

Average House Price (Asking Price)

£360,101

Monthly Change 1.6%

Annual Change +9.9%

5 Year Change +14.8%

Source: Rightmove

Number of Sales Completed

46,806

Monthly Change -12.8%

Annual Change -55.3%

5 Year Change -50.6%

Source: HM Land Registry

Sales Agreed

Monthly Change +15.2%

Source: Rightmove

Total Available Properties

250,951

Available Properties Change

Monthly Change 2.11%

Average Time on Market

159 days

Source: Home

Average Time to Sell

33 days

Source: Rightmove

Price Reductions

22% properties price reduced last month

Source: Home

Mortgage Approvals

Annual Change 4%

Source: Bank of England

POSTCODE DISTRICT DATA

Region
Asking Price Data

REGIONAL HOUSE PRICES

NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET COMMENTARY

“ The price of property coming to market has hit a new record high for the third consecutive month. Month-onmonth prices have risen by an average of 1.6% (+£5,537), and over the last three months by £19,082. This figure is the largest three-month price increase that Rightmove has ever recorded, with high buyer demand enabling sellers to ask and achieve ever higher prices. With not enough property available on the market, sellers are able to find a buyer quicker than ever previously seen by Rightmove, and twice as quickly as in the same period in the more normal market of 2019. This momentum is despite the growing economic headwinds, though we forecast that these headwinds will slow the pace of price rises as the year progresses. ”

“ The March 2022 RICS UK Residential Survey results point to a continued moderate rise in housing market activity over the month, with respondents anticipating this picture will remain in place over the near-term. That said, notwithstanding the general resilience in the latest survey statistics, contributors do appear cautious about the potential impact of macro headwinds on the market, with concerns on issues such as the rising cost of living and higher interest rates highlighted in the comments submitted. ”

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKET COMMENTARY

“With respect to house prices, an aggregate net balance of +74% of respondents saw a continued increase in prices over the latest survey period. This is more or less aligned with the previous month’s results and almost identical to the average seen for this indicator over the past twelve months (+75% net balance). When disaggregated, all parts of the UK continue to see a strong pace of house price growth, with Northern Ireland, Wales and the North of England seeing particularly sharp rates of house price inflation currently. ”

“ Prices are up 11.3% in the country, with average values in Powys, Carmarthenshire and Neath Port Talbot rising by 14.4%, 13.7% and 13.4% respectively as the desire for more space and the relative affordability of these markets has pushed up demand. Liverpool and Manchester lead the way in terms of price growth in the UK’s largest cities, at 10.7% and 8.7%, contributing to average growth of 9.2% in the North West. Oldham and Rochdale are also registering growth of more than 11%. At the other end of the scale, London’s home values are up by an average of 2.6%, although in a third of the city’s boroughs including Bromley, Bexley and Havering, price growth is over 4%. ”

AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE CHANGES SINCE 1995

HOUSE PRICE PREDICTIONS FOR 2021
Tim Bannister, Director of Property Data at Rightmove: 4% rise

“2021 has a lot of variables, and so is not an easy one to call, but with Rightmove’s unique leading indicators of buyer and seller behaviour we are confident that the housing market will continue to outperform general expectations next year as it did this."

"Our 2021 forecast of a 4% price rise is more conservative than the unsustainable 6.6% national average seen this year. There’s likely to be a lull in quarter two unless the stamp duty holiday is extended, but for many buyers its removal will not be make or break, though may lead them to reduce their offers to a degree to compensate for the higher tax, and indeed many sellers may be prepared to help to mitigate their buyer’s financial loss."

"First-time buyers will remain largely exempt, so in most cases will be no worse off. The maximum savings of £2,450 in Wales or £2,100 in Scotland are considerably less decisive than the £15,000 available in England for a house costing £500,000 or more, which does however only apply to a small part of the market.”

Russell Galley, Managing Director of Halifax: 2% to 5% fall

"Despite the deepest recession for centuries, house prices have risen over the past year at their fastest rate since 2016, with mortgage approvals also at their highest level for over a decade. This growth has been driven by a shift in demand from buyers as a result of increased home working and a desire for more space, whilst the stamp-duty holiday brought forward many transactions that might otherwise have been planned for next year."

"With the stamp duty holiday also due to expire in March - and lower levels of demand - housing market activity is likely to slow. Taking all of this into account, the post-summer surge in house prices is unlikely to be sustained. Prices are expected to fall by between 2% and 5% next year, although forecast uncertainty is much higher than usual given the current economic and political environment."

Richard Donnell, Research and Insight Director at Zoopla: 1% rise

“Central to our outlook is lower levels of turnover by long-run standards, which over time increases the scarcity of homes for sale."

"We expect the supply of properties for sale to moderate over 2021, which will restrict choice for consumers."

"This creates a scenario in which any improvement to the economic climate, growth in employment levels, or an uptick in consumer sentiment will in turn boost demand, increase transaction volumes in line 2019 levels, and could provide impetus for house price growth in 2022."

Lucian Cook, Head of Residential Research at Savills: 0% change

“We do expect the economic effects of the pandemic to weigh more heavily on the housing market next year."

Nick Barnes, Head of Research at Chestertons: 1.5% rise

"Assuming no further major systemic shocks, we anticipate that the brunt of Covid’s impact on employment will be felt by the mainstream market and we forecast that after an exceptional year of growth in 2020, prices growth across the UK will slow to 1.5%. Greater London prices have risen less but are likely to fall more, and we expect them to drop by 2% by the end of the year."

HOUSE PRICE PREDICTIONS
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